[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N16W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 01N21W CONTINUING TO 01S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S-04N E OF
24W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-05N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALOFT AND ADVECTS
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO A BASE
OVER THE W ATLC WATERS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
1001 MB LOW NEAR 38N73W SW TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. FROM GEORGIA THE
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NE TEXAS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM
FRONT. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N90W TO 16N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 25N W OF 90W. ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N
OF 27N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER THE E GULF NEAR
27N84W. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS PROVIDING THE E GULF WITH
ANTICYCLONIC WIND OF 5-10 KT AND E-SE WIND OF 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COASTLINE WILL
VANISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WATERS. SE SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO TUE GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. THIS MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
RAINSHOWERS LATER TODAY...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-78W. NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT
AND A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ATLC WATERS WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
LATER TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY MON MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE
TO A BASE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 38N73W SW TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
FROM GEORGIA THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NE TEXAS WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WATERS
LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
991 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N47W. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N46W
CONTINUING SW TO 24N54W TO 23N63W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF
24N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N48W SW TO
21N59W TO COASTAL WATERS OF N HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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