[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SAT APR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 10N18W TO 6N20W AND 4N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 4N21W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 2S32W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 33W AND
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 26W.
NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE EAST OF 4W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND
BEYOND EAST TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS PART OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG 92W/93W...TO THE SOUTH OF 23N INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N85W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KBBF WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG...
KGBK...AND KAXO. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM
ROCKPORT TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE NORTH
OF VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES...AND TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR
AREA...AND INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN FLORIDA...IN BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...
AND AT THE ALBERT WHITTED AIRPORT IN ST. PETERSBURG.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240
NM OF THE COASTS OF THE U.S.A. AND MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 84W.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W TO 95W SE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N60W TO 21N70W...ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N79W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS SURROUND
HISPANIOLA...AND IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND
NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN
SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. ONE IS NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND 81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N/7N BETWEEN 77W
BEYOND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE
12-HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N60W TO 21N70W...ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N79W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS SURROUND
HISPANIOLA...AND IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND
NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
27N50W TO 23N60W AND 22N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT IS THE
REMNANT BOUNDARY OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ONE WEEK AGO...IS NOW WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT...TO THE EAST OF 64W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH
21N60W TO 21N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N79W
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60
NM TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N37W TO 15N58W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 24.5N54W TO
22N64W. WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 31N40W TO
22N55W TO 26N67W TO 31N65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT
IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL...HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 31N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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