[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N17W TO 01N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 01N21W CONTINUING TO 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-05N E OF
18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALOFT AND ADVECTS
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO GEORGIA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA SW TO SW
GEORGIA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO EASTERN TEXAS. CURRENTLY THERE
IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WATERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO
COASTLINE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N W OF 93W.
ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 95W.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W. THIS
SURFACE PATTERN IS PROVIDING THE E GULF WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND
OF 5-10 KT AND E-SE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE
FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COASTLINE WILL VANISH LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC
WATERS. SE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO
20 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THIS MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING IS
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S
OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT...STRONGEST S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-79W. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ATLC WATERS PROVIDES FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS THIS MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE
TO GEORGIA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA SW TO SW GEORGIA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO EASTERN TEXAS.
CURRENTLY THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE W ATLC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING
SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 990 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N50W.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N47W CONTINUING SW TO 25N53W TO 23N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 26N50W SW TO 21N61W TO COASTAL WATERS OF N HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PRIMARY 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES NEAR
35N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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