[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
01N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 33W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FURTHER PROMOTING THE FAIR
WEATHER IS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
STATIONARY ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL SE TEXAS...CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A FAIRLY BENIGN FEATURE DUE TO MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE BASIN OVER THE
MID-ATLC REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK AND BRIDGE THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...SE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO
20 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING PROVIDING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OCCURRING REMAINS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N60W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N77W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAXIMUM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W.
THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING IS A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...S OF 11N BETWEEN 71W-84W. OTHERWISE...
FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT...STRONGEST S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-76W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WESTWARD TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION THIS EVENING. IT IS LIKELY THAT PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCING THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME
DIFFUSE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES THIS EVENING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 77W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 25N. AS A
RESULT...LOWER PRESSURE AND BROAD TROUGHING IS ANALYZED OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-82W...HOWEVER MOST
PRECIPITATION REMAINS ELEVATED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 70W-78W...AND LIKELY ENHANCED BY
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 982 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 38N54W. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W CONTINUING SW
TO 26N56W TO 24N64W. PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE FRONT REMAINS N OF 31N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 29N49W SW TO 22N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION
NEAR 20N74W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A PRIMARY 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 36N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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