[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251903 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

CORRECTION FOR ISSUANCE TIME TO EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W AND 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N16W TO 3N23W AND 2N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 4N30W 3N41W 2N50W 2N52W INCLUDING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
BRAZIL...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 6N5W IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE IVORY
COAST TO 4N8W AND 2N11W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 26N106W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
23N. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 24N. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS
INLAND...PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 80 NM TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. THE TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FROM 26N98W ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...TO 17N93W
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180
NM OF THE COASTS OF THE U.S.A. AND MEXICO FROM 87W WESTWARD AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N70W...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO 19N77W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS SURROUND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N BETWEEN 77W BEYOND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N70W...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO 19N77W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS SURROUND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO
26N57W TO 23N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 46W AND 70W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH 20N70W...
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO 19N77W BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT
180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 52W AND 66W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N41W 25N51W 23N57W...AROUND THE BAHAMAS
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
BETWEEN 52W AND 66W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N72W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N50W TO 23N69W. N OF
30N WITHIN 420 NM E OF FRONT SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N68W TO
31N41W TO 23N60W TO 31N68W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL...HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 31N51W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 38W AND
54W WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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