[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N17W TO 03N22W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 03N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S35W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N-05N
BETWEEN 19W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-03N W
OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC INTO THE BASIN. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM ILLINOIS SW TO NW LOUISIANA TO EASTERN TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 86W. ADVECTION FOG IS
ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016
MB HIGH OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 26N83W. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS
PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 5-15 KT. THE
TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS
MORNING AND THEN WILL EXTEND ALONG THE N GULF COASTLINE AS A
STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATING BY FRI NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE MAX WINDS TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
E VENEZUELA COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES WESTERLY
FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO
INLAND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COAST
OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WITH COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH EXCEPTION OF
THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT. A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED DURING SAT AND SUN WHICH
WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING GENERATED BY
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 28N49W
SW TO 22N61W 19N69W TO CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 18N72W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE LATE
FRI MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE ISLAND MAINLY THROUGH LATE SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CONUS SE INTO THE SW N
ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N72W. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 41N56W SUPPORTS A BROAD ARE OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 41N48W TO
30N55W 25N68W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N49W SW TO 22N62W TO CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 18N72W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 38W-53W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 21N-
25N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE
AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
DISSIPATE SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE W ATLC
FRI AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE W ATLC N OF 29N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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