[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N15W TO 01N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 01N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS ARE FROM 05S-0N E OF 23W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
FROM 02N-05N W OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC INTO THE BASIN. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
ILLINOIS SE TO GEORGIA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
ILLINOIS SW TO NW LOUISIANA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG EASTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND ITS VICINITY IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ADVECTION FOG IS ALSO NOTED OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 92W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER THE SE
GULF NEAR 26N83W. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS PROVIDING THE GULF
WITH SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 5-10 KT. THE TAIL OF A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN WILL EXTEND ALONG THE N GULF COASTLINE WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON
MORNING...HOWEVER A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE MAX WINDS TO 20 KT STARTING SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS COVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN...ONE CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA AND THE
OTHER SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PATTERN ALOFT PROVIDES
W-NW FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO
INLAND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION SUPPORTS TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING GENERATED BY
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 31N46W
SW TO 22N60W 19N70W TO CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 19N72W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE LATE
FRI MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE ISLAND MAINLY THROUGH LATE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CONUS SE INTO THE SW N
ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N71W. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 41N54W SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG
44N45W TO 30N53W 25N62W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 26N71W.
NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N46W SW TO
22N60W TO CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-53W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 21N-25N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
AND DISSIPATE SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE W
ATLC FRI AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE W ATLC N OF 29N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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