[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N18W TO 5N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
35W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN
NEAR 3N TO 1N9W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 1N44W TO 2N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER TEXAS ARE MOVING OVER THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W OF
93W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 80W FROM CUBA OVER THE W ATLC IS
GIVING THE GULF W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH AT 24/2100 UTC NEAR
29N87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO OVER HISPANIOLA AT 24/2100 UTC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER E CUBA E OF 79W. THE TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HAITI BEING GENERATED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N67W
TO 19N72W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING
HISPANIOLA WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY THROUGH
LATE SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 80W FROM CUBA TO BEYOND 32N. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 24/2100 UTC
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W ALONG 28N61W TO 26N67W THEN DISSIPATES TO
26N71W. A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG
32N52W TO 27N53W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 22N61W
20N67W TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E OF THE SURFACE ALONG 20N46W
TO BEYOND 32N38W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
N OF 22N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATE SAT. A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE W ATLC FRI AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE W
ATLC N OF 29N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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