[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST THU APR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 7N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N22W TO
1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 1S42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 43W AND
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 26W...AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3N1W 2N8W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST 4 TO 6 HOUR OR SO...TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 10W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE REMAINING RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THIS AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW IS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KGUL...KHQI...AND KMDJ. ICAO STATION
KBBF IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG/HAZE.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
21N70W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE WATERS AROUND THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W
AND 64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 74W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.26 IN
ST. THOMAS...AND 0.10 IN TRINIDAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
21N70W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE WATERS AROUND THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING
COVERS LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...CUMULONIMBUS...
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
24N69W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 28N69W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N63W 25N71W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W 24N60W 24N77W. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES ALONG 32N50W TO 31N51W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N51W TO 27N56W AND 26N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 26N61W TO 21N70W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO 19N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W...TO 29N46W...TO 27N52W TO 24N59W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WATERS
AROUND THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 70W AND
FLORIDA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.54 IN
BERMUDA.

REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG
32N24W 24N27W 12N45W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W
AND 60W.

A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N31W 27N35W 23N44W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE 32N48W 20N60W 15N67W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO 28N66W TO
28N72W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 56W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 68W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS
OF...N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...S OF 16N E
OF 51W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL. A FOURTH
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...FROM 16N TO 26N E OF 40W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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