[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOW
PRES OVER NW S AMERICA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER THEN CONTINUES TO 04N18W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 01N30W 0N40W TO 01S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM
01N-06N BETWEEN 08W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01S-07N BETWEEN 20W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER N OF 40N EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WATERS TO PROVIDE
E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...BOTH THE SSMI
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT WITH STRONG N WINDS AND
POSSIBLE GALES BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC
WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI.
SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCING
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE NE TO BEYOND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EASTERLIES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN WILL SUBSIDE BY MON MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REDUCES. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER CUBA THROUGHOUT SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ISLAND
IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCING ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT REACHING
FROM 32N45W TO 25N60W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING FROM 32N46W TO 27N55W BY
EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS THE
SUPPORTING TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER
SOUTH...MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC
WEST OF 55W WILL INCREASE SLIGHT BY TUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS N OF
THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTS A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N28W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SW TO NEAR 19N35W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 20W-28W AND WILL MOVE NE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR/CHRISTENSEN

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net