[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOW
PRES OVER NW S AMERICA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER THEN CONTINUES TO 04N18W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 0N30W 0N40W TO 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 01N
BETWEEN 05W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-05N BETWEEN 18W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS N OF 36N EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WATERS TO
PROVIDE E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. AS OF 2100 UTC...
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED NEAR PANAMA CITY WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
STRONG N WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC
WATERS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
NE TO BEYOND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EASTERLIES OF 20-25
KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WILL SUBSIDE BY MON MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REDUCES. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER CUBA THROUGHOUT
SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CUBA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXCEPT FOR
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC. THIS RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM BERMUDA TO SE GEORGIA SUN AND MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC AN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 30N50W TO 25N62W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING TO 23N71W TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N77W. A BROKEN BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTEND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE WESTERN PART
WILL DRIFT NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING.
A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N28W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
18N37W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 22W-29W AND WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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