[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE BASIN AND THE
COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING AND AGAIN
SAT NIGHT. SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA TODAY.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER THEN CONTINUES TO 5N19W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 3N30W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR TO NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND
37W AND FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING
MAINLY AN E-SE FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE SAT THEN DRIFT SLIGHTLY N SUN AND MON. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS MON NIGHT WITH STRONG N WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES
BEHIND IT. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALL THE WAY
NE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER EASTERN CUBA GENERATING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCH FROM
NEAR CAMAGUEY CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW AND INLAND ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
NE TRADE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE NE TO BEYOND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO DOMINATES
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE E ATLC CROSSES NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO THEN EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CUBA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT NW AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N52W TO 25N64W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS INTO EASTERN CUBA. A BROKEN BAND OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE WESTERN PART WILL DRIFT NW
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM BERMUDA TO SE GEORGIA SUN
AND MON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF THE
AZORES. BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N28W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
NEAR 21N33W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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