[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE NE TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 11W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. WITH AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
GULF...AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS. WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLIES IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
BASIN NEAR 09N78W THIS AFTERNOON THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE TO
BEYOND 20N70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW STREAM OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ADVECTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
CUBA. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASIDE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT
REMAINS STRONG TRADES OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-80W...WITH
THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES NOTED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS
AROUND 12/1414 UTC IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 38N43W THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT FROM 32N47W TO 30N50W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO
26N60W THEN GENERALLY WEST TO 25N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 65W...WHEREAS MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED NEAR
27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 65W-75W IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
BERMUDA NEAR 35N65W SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W.
FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N26W THAT SUPPORTS A REFLECTS TO
THE SURFACE AS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N27W. MAXIMUM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE FROM
FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 14W-21W...AND FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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