[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST WED APR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 23N81W TO 16N85W.
EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...EXCEPT 9 TO 12 FT IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR...A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N76W TO 23N81W. N OF 29N WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF
BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 390 NM SE OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 27N. W OF FRONT N OF 26N W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT E OF 79W.

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 48 HOURS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FT...FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ ARE NOT APPARENT IN WIND DATA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO THE IVORY
COAST BETWEEN 4W AND 7W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2S IN BRAZIL BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N78W TO 25N85W 24N90W 24N97W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W...PASSING THROUGH
20N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND FROM
30N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 21N80W 19N82W 16N83W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 21N80W 16N83W LINE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
THROUGH A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W... TO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL ALABAMA NEAR THE BORDER
WITH THE BORDER WITH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CRESTVIEW FLORIDA IN
THE PANHANDLE IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. SCATTERED MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PERRY AND BROOKSVILLE IN FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER NAPLES AND MARATHON KEY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A COLD FRONT SE OF AREA. N OF 25N E OF 94W NW TO N WINDS
25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN BETWEEN
82W AND 93W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT TO 30 KT IN
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 25N70W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NEAR EASTERN PANAMA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA NEAR
15N83W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 80W. THEY ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT....CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W
AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST OF 42W.

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 20N39W 14N49W...TO 14N58W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS
WITHIN AT LEAST 900 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 18N36W
9N50W 6N68W. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 29N22W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N35W AND 29N37W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N45W AND 30N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE EAST OF 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 25N64W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N67W...TOWARD THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N68W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT....A COLD FRONT FROM 31N38W TO 28N44W TO
30N51W. N OF 30N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...S OF 15N BETWEEN
47W AND 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE TO
E SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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