[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST WED APR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 22.5N82.5W TO
16N88.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...THE HIGHEST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITHIN
90 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W...TO
1N30W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...TO 1S45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO
4S BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
1W AND 3W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N TO
THE EAST OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A...ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N80W TO 26N84W 23N91W 23N97W. THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...PASSING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N86W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...COVERING HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE.

GALE-FORCE AND STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE...KGBK AND KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE WEST OF APALACHICOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO NAPLES...EVEN
REACHING MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 26N80W TO 16N88.5W. EXPECT NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PART...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET...HIGHEST IN
THE CENTRAL PART..TO THE NORTH OF 20N AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT TO 96W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 25N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NEAR EASTERN PANAMA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 83W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 83W. THEY ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE
FROM 11N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST OF 42W.

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 34N22W TO 32N25W 25N35W 18N46W...TO 14N55W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W AND 28N39W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IS WITHIN AT LEAST 900 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF 20N34W 10N47W 7N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA OF
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W...BEYOND THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER REMAINS NEAR 29N23W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W AND 28N39W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 29N46W AND
30N49W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N49W TO 30N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N59W 21N63W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W...TOWARD THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N67W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N77.5W TO 25N80W.
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF
27N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SEA
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 68W
AND 73W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 31N36W TO 29N40W.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net