[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N78W SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W OF
GUATEMALA. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT WITHIN 90 NM NW OF FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO 01S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 25W-30W AND FROM 06S-01N W OF
27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO A BASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N78W SW ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM 27N80W TO 24N82W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N84W
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA W OF
81W AS WELL AS WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-90W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE...RIDGING HAS BUILT IN ACROSS THE
GULF WEST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NW OF THE FRONT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TONIGHT. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD AND CLEARS THE BASIN LATER TONIGHT...STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS IS ENTERING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AS OF 2100
UTC...A PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW CUBA NEAR
22N84W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N85W TO NW HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE N
OF 17N W OF 84W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING THE REMAINING BASIN IS VERY
DRY AND STABLE. THIS STABILITY ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN STRONG
TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 25 KT NOTED
BETWEEN 67W-75W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO START
DISSIPATING FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO EASTERN NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR AS WELL AS NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL
HAITI BEING ENHANCED BY A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS CUBA AND THE SW NORTH
ATLC TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL NW OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC NEAR
30N78W ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM 27N80W TO 24N82W TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ARE N OF 26N W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR
38N15W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N22W.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A THE BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 42N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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