[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA SW
TO 22N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 20N
W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 36N90W TO A BASE OVER THE NW GULF.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA SW TO 22N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA...ALONG WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT
N OF 22N. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY MAXIMUM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF THE
FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD AND CLEARS THE BASIN BY
LATE TUESDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N78W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE
AIRMASS INFLUENCING THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY DRY AND
STABLE. THIS STABILITY ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SURFACE
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE MOST IMPORTANT MARINE IMPACT HOWEVER
REMAINS RATHER STRONG TRADE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING E-SE WINDS E OF 80W IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED BETWEEN 67W-77W.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MODIFY LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY INTRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
RATHER TRANQUIL AND QUIET AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS CUBA
AND THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
HISPANIOLA WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NW OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING CONTINUED
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N79W NE TO BEYOND 32N68W. PLENTY OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
PRECEDE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
AND OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N W OF 75W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM
28N50W SW TO 20N80W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. FARTHER EAST...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA NEAR 36N20W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N23W. THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH ONLY A BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A THE BROAD RIDGING PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ANCHORED NEAR 28N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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