[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST TUE APR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE 12-HOUR ATLANTIC OCEAN FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT
FROM 27N82W TO 21N88W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...
EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 92W...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 1N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1N18W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 2S27W 2S34W...AND
3S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 5S BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UNITED STATES...
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART INTO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
82W AND 86W...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA IS WEAKENING.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 30N85W 27N88W 24N90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE AREA...THAT IS AWAY
FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE TROUGH.

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 18 HOURS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.
ICAO STATION KVBS IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.
ICAO STATIONS KATP AND KIPN ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS. THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEARING RECENTLY...KEIR...KSPR...AND KATP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER AREA FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS
AND ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA...TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAINSHOWERS COVER FLORIDA FROM
APALACHICOLA TO PERRY AND GAINESVILLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PUNTA GORDA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 22N91W TO 18N94W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 28N TO
29N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A RIDGE
RUNS FROM NICARAGUA...ACROSS CUBA...BEYOND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N76W.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM THE
EARLIER YUCATAN PENINSULA CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...COVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO
THE WEST OF 82W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...EXCEPT 8 TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO THE WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AREA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO
AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N22W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N26W...TO 25N38W AND
18N43W AND 14N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CONSISTS OF A 1012 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N23W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER BEYOND 32N26W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STARTS
NEAR 31N19W TO 27N20W 21N30W AND 20N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 20N38W TO 21N45W AND 27N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE EAST OF 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N61W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 21N85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 37W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. A
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN
74W AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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