[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Apr 8 00:55:28 CDT 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 080557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST TUE APR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE 18-HOUR ATLANTIC OCEAN FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT
FROM 27N82W TO 21N88W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...
EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 93W...ELSEWHERE TO THE
WEST OF 88W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 4N12W AND 2N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N15W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 17W...TO 1S20W 3S30W 3S37W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR
6S42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF
10W...TO THE SOUTH OF 8N12W 7N20W 3N28W 2N34W 1N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UNITED STATES...
FROM INDIANA AND OHIO INTO TEXAS...IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N88W...THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND 89W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FROM THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE CURVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE AREA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF
THE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

ICAO STATION KVBS IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. ICAO
STATIONS KATP AND KIPN ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE
BEAUMONT TEXAS AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF LOUISIANA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED
AT THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA
CITY TO PERRY FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING
IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA GORDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 24N91W TO 19N96W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 24N
BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A RIDGE
RUNS FROM NICARAGUA...ACROSS CUBA...BEYOND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N76W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 82W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF
17N87W 19N84W 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 18N87W TO 16N85W...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...TO
THE WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AREA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND
IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N21W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N32W 21N43W...AND TO 14N49W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONSISTS OF A 1010
MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N25W. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEYOND 32N27W. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N21W AND 23N25W. THE COLD
FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N25W TO 21N30W AND 20N35W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 29N50W 22N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAIN-
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 56W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 24N91W TO
19N96W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. THE
06-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W
AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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