[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N88W SW TO 23N95W TO 19N95W. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
FUNNELING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE BY 08/1800 UTC ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF
20N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
02N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 07W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS A
PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 997 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF BASIN NEAR THE EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N88W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO
23N95W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. HOWEVER...THE MORE
INTENSE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM 30N84W TO 28N86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SURROUND THE SQUALL LINE AXIS N OF
28N BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 85W-90W. THIS
CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE SE GULF
AND NW GULF ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. LOOKING AHEAD...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE
AIRMASS INFLUENCING THE BASIN THIS EVENING IS VERY DRY AND
STABLE. THIS STABILITY ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SURFACE
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE MOST IMPORTANT MARINE
IMPACT HOWEVER REMAINS RATHER STRONG TRADE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE
NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED BETWEEN 65W-78W...AND A SMALL
AREA S OF 20N W OF 84W...WHICH INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT REACHES THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY INTRODUCING STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING REMAIN
RATHER TRANQUIL AND QUIET AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS CUBA
AND THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
HISPANIOLA WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NW OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING CONTINUED
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING 30N ALONG
76W. PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO PRECEDE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PRE-FRONTAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST
FROM 27N-30N W OF 80W AND N OF 30N W OF 79W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE BETWEEN 53W-78W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 33N24W
THAT SUPPORTS A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
32N25W. THE OCCLUSION WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW TO A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 34N23W TO 30N22W TO 25N25W TO 21N40W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
21N40W INTO A WEAK 1019 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. THIS VERY
WEAK LOW IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 29N49W THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE S-SE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N-
27N BETWEEN 44W-53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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