[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N WITHIN 90
NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 09/1500 UTC THROUGH 32N70W
TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THU NIGHT FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THIS AREA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE FOR 6 TO
12 HOURS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS EVERY NIGHT FROM THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N2W TO 3N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE NE GULF IS SUPPORTING
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TODAY ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER
SW LOUISIANA WITH A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE GULF N
OF 25N. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE E
GULF BECOMING OVERCAST OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W. SKIES
ARE REMARKABLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT E THU WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING ALONG 29N FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AT 09/1500 UTC ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 22N78W ALONG 17N82W 13N83W THEN INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TO
12N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM W OF THE FRONT.
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. FOG IS BEING REPORTED W
OF THE FRONT OVER HONDURAS AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN 84W-86W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM E CUBA TO S NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA EARLY THU THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FRI AND SAT.
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS
SHRINKING BRIEFLY TODAY AND EARLY THU THEN EXPANDING AND
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH
NIGHT STARTING THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THU AS THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ACROSS E CUBA. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS THU
AND THU NIGHT. AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE ON FRI INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC EXTENDS A
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 09/1500 UTC NEAR 32N70W
THEN ALONG 25N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W
CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N55W FURTHER
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
W OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
32N34W TO 20N40W THEN SW TO NE VENEZUELA AND THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N39W TO 27N44W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 30N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 29N23W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO FAR E CUBA BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 32N58W TO E CUBA FRI AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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