[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 05N EAST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO
THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO.  A 1001 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW WAS
ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST JUST NORTH OF VERA
CRUZ...SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  A SMALL PORTION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT CUTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE 20-25 KT...WHILE THE NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTH OF 25N.  CURRENTLY...THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER LOUISIANA AS SEEN
IN THE COASTAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA WITH A WEAKENING PRE-
FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO EXIST FROM COASTAL EASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY
HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  THE FRONT AND DEEP CONVECTION ARE
ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.  AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE CONVECTION WILL SET
UP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF BY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...10 TO 20 KT...BEFORE THE
NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY FEATURES EXIST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.  THE MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADEWINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT.  LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WERE OBSERVED BY THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER BOTH NORTH OF COLOMBIA
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...GENERALLY
SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ARE DISSIPATING.
WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS PREVAILING...CONTINUED SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION...IT IS
UNLIKELY FOR SUCH SHOWERS TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 33N29W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N46W WHERE
IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING FRONT TO 24N52W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN 20 KT
OR LESS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE LOW AND FRONT ARE
SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N30W.  THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL.  THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS
BEEN REBUILDING SOME TODAY AS IT HAS A PRESSURE OF 1023 MB
CENTERED OVER 29N60W.  THE GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING LIGHT
WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  AS OF 0300
UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AT 32N78W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS NOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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