[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERA CRUZ.  BY LATE
TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
YUCATAN OF MEXICO.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT ACROSS THE GULF WITH
SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER WINDS. A SHORT DURATION NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY GALE EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 05N EAST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERA CRUZ.  A 1000 MB BROAD
SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...JUST SOUTH
OF THE FRONT.  A SMALL PORTION OF A WARM FRONT CUTS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE 20-30
KT...WHILE THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTH
OF 25N.  CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE
FRONT OVER LOUISIANA AS SEEN IN THE COASTAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING
DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXIST FROM COASTAL EASTERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED BY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  THE FRONT AND
DEEP CONVECTION ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.  AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...THE CONVECTION WILL SET UP AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT...FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...10 TO 20 KT.  BY LATE TUESDAY...THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN OF
MEXICO.  ALSO...A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT
ACROSS THE GULF WITH SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER WINDS BY LATE
TUESDAY. A SHORT DURATION GALE EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY FEATURES EXIST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING.  THE MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADEWINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT.  LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WERE OBSERVED BY THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER BOTH NORTH OF COLOMBIA
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...GENERALLY
SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY.  ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING YESTERDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT HAVE
DISSIPATED.  WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS PREVAILING...
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS UNLIKELY FOR SUCH SHOWERS TO PRODUCE MUCH
RAINFALL OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 32N26W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N47W WHERE
IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT ATTACHED TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW AT
25N53W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE 1008 MB LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER-
LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N28W.  THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AND FILL OVER THE NEXT DAY.  THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS BEEN
REBUILDING SOME OVERNIGHT AS IT NOW HAS A PRESSURE OF 1023 MB
CENTERED OVER 28N61W AS WELL AS A BROAD HIGH OF 1026 MB JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 34N42W.  THE GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC-
SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS.  AS OF 0900 UTC...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 32N77W OFF OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS NOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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