[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST OVER
BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THEN ALONG 30N88W
INTO LOUISIANA S OF NEW ORLEANS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS INTO
N MEXICO IS RE-ENFORCING THE FRONT FORMING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
RE-ENTERING THE W GULF AT 06/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM A 1002 MB
LOW NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO A SECOND
1002 MB LOW NEAR 27N97W TO OVER NE MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-94W AND N OF 24N W OF 95W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. LOW ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WILL QUICKLY TRACK NE THROUGH MON WHILE DEEPENING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W GULF TONIGHT REACHING FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE EARLY MON...FROM THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF LATE MON...FROM JUST N OF TAMPA
FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE...THEN SE OUT OF
THE GULF TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC COVERS THE MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 76W INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS
INTO TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W AND
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NW ATLC IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W AND CONNECTING TO THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N80W WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE
GULF ACROSS SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N29W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N36W
23N44W TO 25N53W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM 30N25W ALONG 24N30W TO 20N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS NE FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE CONUS LATE MON
THEN MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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