[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N16W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO
50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02S-05N
BETWEEN 06W-17W...FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 19W-36W AND FROM 01S-01N
W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA. FROM THERE...THE FRONT
CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE AND FURTHER INLAND TO FUEL HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM NE TEXAS ALL THE WAY EASTWARD TO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
EXISTS FOR THE FRONT...AS MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...A REGION OF
DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S-SE U.S. AS WELL AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EPAC SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THIS REGION. OVER THE NW GULF...ADVECTION FOG IS PRESENT N OF
27N W OF 89W. LATE TONIGHT...THE EXTENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOUISIANA-ARKANSAS BORDER. ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND
COASTS FROM TEXAS TO NORTHERN FLORIDA DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AS WELL AS LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT. AFTER CYCLOGENESIS...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF
LOUISIANA WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ALOFT...THE BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT
DRY AIR SUBSIDING BASIN-WIDE WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
STREAM WESTWARD WITH THE TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
WHICH IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY 20
KT...WITH 25 KT NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER OR NEAR
HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHER WATER CONTENT STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE ISLAND THUS SUPPORTING SHALLOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N33W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N42W TO 26N50W WHERE ITS TAIL STARTS TO
DISSIPATE TO 27N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM
E OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
FROM 30N23W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N32W TO 19N42W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM W OF IT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT
WESTERLY WIND W-NW OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK OVER THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. OTHERWISE...A
1023 MB HIGH IS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N63W
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TUE
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE SW N ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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