[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 01W-10W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN
15W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A RESULT
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N74W. E-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. AS THE
HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT
TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THIS
MORNING. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING WITH THE MOST MID-
LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED NORTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS SW TO NORTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N76W. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...
CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-
79W. OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-78W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED
FROM 21N70W TO 19N76W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 69W AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRAPED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE
BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER
THE NW NORTH ATLC NEAR 42N55W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N50W SW TO 23N63W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA THEN INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA VIA THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N75W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N41W. THE RIDGING WEAKENS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N12W TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W TO 24N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net