[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED APR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG
15W TO 1S20W...TO 3S30W AND 5S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 15W
AND 26W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 7W AND
11W...WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 34W AND
39W...AND FROM 2N TO 3S BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF EAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH OF 25N97W 26N91W 27N86W BEYOND 29N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...CROSSING SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMDJ AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REST OF THE SITES.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTHWARD. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT ALSO WITH THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS FROM
LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...TO THE AREA OF MARY ESTHER/
VALPARAISO/DESTIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEARING IN THE REST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AFTER LOW CLOUDS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES/FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TODAY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO
THE WEST OF 94W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF BERMUDA...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND BEYOND HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.61 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...AND 0.26 IN TRINIDAD.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS APPARENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY
RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
THAT HAVE FORMED WITH TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF BERMUDA...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND BEYOND HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W...TO 27N53W AND
23N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N63W TO 21N70W...AND
19N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 28N50W 24N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N60W 21N64W 20N72W
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...
AND JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.61 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC....
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUERTO
PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO...SANTO DOMINGO AND
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA AND LA ROMANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START
ALONG A CUBA-TO-HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR LINE...AND IT WILL MOVE TO
A HISPANIOLA-TO-PANAMA/COSTA RICA LINE. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 24 HOURS... AND THEN SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ALONG A SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-
TO-NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS LINE...AND IT WILL
MOVE TO A PUERTO RICO-TO-EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA LINE.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A POSITION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS ABOUT 270 NM FROM NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
FLORIDA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR-NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MOROCCO TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SAHARA. A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N10W TO 27N12W AND
22N20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...TO 26N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N32W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N39W...TO 21N51W...TO 14N65W IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N47W 27N53W
23N63W 21N70W 19N76W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N48W TO 22N65W THEN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N75W. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 71W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THE SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO
11 FEET TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM 31N41W TO 25N42W TO 14N35W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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