[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N14W TO 02N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 33W TO 01N40W TO THE EQUATOR ONCE AGAIN NEAR
46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 15W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A RESULT
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. E-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT
TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THIS
EVENING. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING WITH THE MOST MID-
LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION WHERE A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA COAST ALONG 20N. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N
BETWEEN 69W-79W. OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED
FROM 22N70W TO 19N78W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 69W AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRAPED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE
BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER
THE NW NORTH ATLC NEAR 42N57W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N52W SW TO 23N64W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA THEN INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FROM
20N-27N BETWEEN 59W-70W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N77W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N42W. THE RIDGING WEAKENS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N10W TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 28N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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