[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020005 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 08N13W THEN INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 04N13W TO
02N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 0N25W 0N38W TO 01S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM
04S-03N E OF 10W AND FROM 04S-06N BETWEEN 14W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE SW N
ATLC NEAR 30N76W EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WATERS THUS PROVIDING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PROVIDES W-
NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
TO THE NW GULF THUS SUPPORTING MIDDLE CLOUDS IN THIS REGION. THE
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOIST AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE WESTERN GULF...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT
INHIBITS CONVECTION THIS EVENING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH LACKING CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO 17N92W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL DRIFT NE BUT
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NW GULF FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC
DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH TAIL EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA NEAR
18N77W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. A
MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE E-SE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS AIRMASS IS MOVING W-NW WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N-NE OF
THE AREA BY WED MORNING BUT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N-NE OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING BUT
REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY FOR
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N76W
COVERS SW N ATLC WATERS W OF 70W. FARTHER E ON THE BASIN...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE NW ATLC AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM
30N54W SW TO 24N61W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 22N67W TO 20N73W TO JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
21N W OF THE FRONT TO 71W AND WITHIN 220 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT E WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANT OF
A FORMER COLD FRONT...IS ANALYZED FROM 30N12W TO 26N19W TO
24N28W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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