[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE POSITION WAS HELD MORE
TO THE EAST BASED ON THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 26W AND
28W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N38W 13N36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N34W 15N35W 19N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N41W 15N43W 9N43W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 26N20W TO 24N29W 21N34W 16N37W
AND 11N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GAMBIA/
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...TO 12N20W 10N25W 12N29W
9N35W 9N39W 8N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N42W TO 5N49W AND
5N53W NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 12N TO
THE EAST OF 44W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
27N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N80W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N74W 27N75W TO 24N77W IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N81W...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 68W...AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N77W...TO 15N83W ALONG THE BORDER OF
EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD...FROM THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N95W...TO 20N95W AND 18N97W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED STRONG IS
INLAND IN MEXICO FROM 17N TO 21N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 3
MILES OR LOWER WITH FOG ARE REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA.

THE SKIES ARE CLEARING IN TEXAS...WITH SOME REMAINING LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS IN THE DEEP SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM THE
AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST...TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE LOUISIANA GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE PRESENT IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND IN COASTAL ALABAMA...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH PRECIPITATION COVER FLORIDA TO
THE WEST OF PERRY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA
FROM BROOKSVILLE WITH LIGHT RAIN...TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD
FRONT FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 26N95W TO 19N96W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOT AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN IS WEAK.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO
15N69W...TOWARD NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...ALONG 19N62W 13N60W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W...TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...ACROSS PANAMA...THROUGH EASTERN COSTA RICA...TO
12N86W IN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
IN COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 74W AND 79W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24
HOUR FORECAST FOR EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 18N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 10N TO 19N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND
55W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO
30N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N56W 27N54W...TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N32W TO 28N40W 27N46W AND 28N51W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N51W TO 30N59W...TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
30N62W TO 26N62W AND 22N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N56W
28N57W 24N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO A 1020
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N22W...TO 26N31W AND
25N41W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N62W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN
180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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