[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N38W 20N40W 16N41W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 26N22W TO 23N31W 20N35W 13N38W
AND 11N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N39W 16N42W 10N46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GAMBIA/
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...TO 12N26W 13N32W 12N36W
13N41W 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N46W TO 10N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N
TO 12N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND
26W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO
26N71W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N73W 27N74W TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND AND TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
25N TO 27N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 70W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD...FROM THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 26N95W...TO 21N96W AND 19N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N82W IN SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...TO 29N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 27N90W...TO
26N95W. SCATTERED STRONG IS MOSTLY IN MEXICO...FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MOST OF THE ICAO STATIONS.
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LOWER WITH FOG ARE REPORTED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KEMK...KEHC...AND KCRH. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE PRESENT IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... AND
IN COASTAL ALABAMA WITH RAIN. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH
PRECIPITATION COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD
FRONT FROM 29N91W TO THE 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 26N95W TO 20.5N97W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN IS WEAK.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO
15N69W...TOWARD EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH...ALONG 19N62W 15N62W 12N62W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W...TO 9N77W
IN EASTERN PANAMA...ACROSS PANAMA...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL COSTA
RICA...ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA AND WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM PANAMA...WEAKENING IN
COSTA RICA...TO STRONG IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. ONE CLUSTER OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND ONE IS IN EASTERN
GUATEMALA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24
HOUR FORECAST FOR EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 18N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N56W 15N57W 13N58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND
61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND
50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N34W TO
32N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 34N56W 29N57W...TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W TO 29N40W 28N44W AND 28N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N51W TO 30N58W...TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
29N61W TO 26N62W AND 23N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N57W
28N58W 27N58W 22N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N39W AND
27N47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N24W...TO 23N32W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
23N TO THE EAST OF 32W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N62W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN
240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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