[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N26W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MOIST SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N42W TO 9N43W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE HAS MOVED
INTO A RELATIVELY DRY AREA HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS
NOTED. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
12N24W TO 8N27W TO 8N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N32W TO 10N41W TO 8N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 11W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 32N85W TO
29N91W TO A 1002 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS NEAR 26N94W TO
S OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 20N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 84W-90W... AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 90W-
94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. 20-25 WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW...AND N OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE... WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TRADEWINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA IS VOID OF CONVECTION. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EVENING AIRMASS HEATING TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA N OF 29N W OF
77W DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W MOVING N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 25N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 28N40W
TO 29N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N23W. IN THE
TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 19N59W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 60W-72W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGHIS CENTERED NEAR 27N54W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 18N52W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A
SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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