[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 16/0000 UTC IS NEAR 22.9N
96.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 109 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF TAMPICO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 109 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA
PESCA MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. INGRID SHOULD BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO MONDAY MORNING. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
CENTER FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 92W-97W.

THE 1007 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HUMBERTO AT 15/2100
UTC IS NEAR 27N40W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W/21W
FROM 19N-10N...MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL
IN THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W
TO 14N26W TO 11N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N31W TO 8N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE INGRID IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N84W SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE HURRICANE. EXPECT INGRID TO REMAIN OVER
THE GULF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND N OF 15N. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO COSTA
RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 7N-11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO E OF
70W. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
65W PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT...THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
BAHAMAS W OF 75W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 24N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF
HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 27N40W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. EXPECT THE
LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE NW AND WEAKEN TO A SURFACE
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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