[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Sep 15 13:05:33 CDT 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 151805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 15/1800 UTC IS NEAR
22.6N 96.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 103 NM TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 119 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA IN MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS NEAR 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT
INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
19N TO 24N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO AND
TEXAS FROM 23N TO 29N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE
TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE 1007 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HUMBERTO AT 15/1500
UTC IS NEAR 26N40W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 36W AND 39W AT 15/0745 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
IS FROM 30N TO 32N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 37W. LINGERING
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND
39W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS IN FORECAST AREA WITHIN 150
NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE N
OF 25N E OF 42W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA N OF 21N E OF 47W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT
PRIMARILY IN E SWELL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THE WAVE HAS MOVED MUCH IF ANY DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 17N16W TO
14N23W 10N30W AND 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO 7N48W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N20W 8N30W
8N40W 7N52W.

LARGE-SCALE EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 54W AND 55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO
29N82W IN FLORIDA...TO A 27N86W EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N89W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 31N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N75W TO
THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER THAT IS ALONG 83W...TOWARD SOUTH-
EASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 29N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 65W...AND IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED FROM THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TOWARD THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA.
MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE AROUND THE AREA OF LAKE
PONTCHARTAIN. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED IN THE PANAMA CITY AREA. A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA DURING
THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE
INGRID IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
BAHAMAS...FROM 10N/11N IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 23N BETWEEN 65W
AND 78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N
TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 2.52 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...0.59 IN CURACAO...0.35 IN BARBADOS...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.17 IN TRINIDAD...0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N81W IN
PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
17N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN
AN AREA OF EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG...BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGHS SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-
HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
BAHAMAS...FROM 10N/11N IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 23N BETWEEN 65W
AND 78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N
TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST...
AND ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.
THE TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N72W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...CROSSING
HISPANIOLA...AND EVENTUALLY OPENING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH...DURING
THE COURSE OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ON TOP OF THIS FEATURE
IS UNIFORMLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE 1009 MB LOW
CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 56W AND 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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