[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5 95.6 AT 15/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 130 NM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 143 NM ESE OF LA
PESCA MEXICO MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 92W-96W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 89W-98W. WHILE INGRID IS FORECAST TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
ASIDE FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE SW GULF WATERS
AND COASTAL MEXICO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REMNANT 1005 MB LOW OF HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 26N39W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AZORES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASSES WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 19N17W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS GENERALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING WITH A MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 15W-21W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
15N22W TO 10N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N28W TO 06N43W TO 07N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOC4 JKL; '/ITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS EMERGED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
10N BETWEEN 25W-34W...FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM
06N-12N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
19N96W NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO A CREST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF A LINE FROM COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W
TO OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N88W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS DIRECTLY
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SE TEXAS AND
MEXICO COAST S OF 29N W OF 93W...WHICH LEADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE INGRID CENTERED IN THE SW GULF
WATERS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING S OF 25N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE N OF 24N E OF
92W DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ALONG 30N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THAT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND REMAINS DRY. WITH HURRICANE INGRID REMAINING
OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF INGRID'S
INFLUENCE...GENERALLY E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT E OF 90W...AND 15-25 KT W OF
90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N71W AND IS PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEST OF
A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W TO 12N84W. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
CENTRAL PANAMA AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. THE AXIS IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING S OF
11N. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 66W-72W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND IS ADVECTING SCATTERED MIDDLE
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ARE E-SE SURFACE WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 65W.

HISPANIOLA...
MOST EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINING THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DUE TO LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND NEAR 17N71W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N70W TO 31N84W AND ALONG 30N AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION W OF A LINE
FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO 20N75W...WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED N OF 25N W OF 73W. FARTHER
EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN 50W-63W THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A
WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N62W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE AREA IMPACTED BY THE REMNANT LOW
OF HUMBERTO...SURFACE RIDGING CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH
CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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