[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 95.2W AT 15/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 150 NM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 NM ESE OF LA
PESCA MEXICO MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 92W-96W...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 87W-
99W. WHILE INGRID IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
THEN WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...ASIDE FROM HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS IMPACTING THE SW GULF WATERS AND COASTAL MEXICO...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN
MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE REMNANT 1005 MB LOW OF HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 26N38W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AZORES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASSES WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N18W TO 19N17W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS GENERALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING WITH A MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-
18N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
10N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N25W TO 06N30W TO 09N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS EMERGED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 25W-32W...
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 38W-46W...AND FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
18N95W NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO A CREST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF A LINE FROM COASTAL TEXAS NEAR 30N94W TO
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS DIRECTLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST
S OF 27N W OF 94W...WHICH LEADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE INGRID CENTERED IN THE SW GULF WATERS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING S OF 24N W OF 83W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND CHANNEL THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
PLACE N OF 25N E OF 93W DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG 30N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA THAT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND REMAINS DRY.
WITH HURRICANE INGRID REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF INGRID'S INFLUENCE...GENERALLY E-SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT
E OF 90W...AND 15-25 KT W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N72W AND IS PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEST OF
A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W TO 11N84W...THAT
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND CUBA. FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA
TO PANAMA TO HONDURAS AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING
ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 67W-
74W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
IS ADVECTING SCATTERED MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER
BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE E-SE SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
E OF 63W.

HISPANIOLA...
MOST EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINING THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DUE TO LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND NEAR 16N72W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N73W TO 30N81W AND ALONG 30N TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL AREA IS GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION W OF 73W...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN 47W-63W
THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N61W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-
32N BETWEEN 52W-63W. FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE AREA IMPACTED BY
THE REMNANT LOW OF HUMBERTO...SURFACE RIDGING CONTROLS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG
1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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