[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID AT 15/0000 UTC IS NEAR 21.6N
94.7W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 156 NM ENE OF TUXPAN IN
MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING NORTHWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. PLEASE
READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND
THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 91W-96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 93W-
99W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 16W TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL
IN THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W
TO 16N20W TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N25W TO 7N30W TO
7N40W TO 9N50W TO 12N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE INGRID IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO HOUSTON
TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N
SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE
S GULF SUPPORTING THE HURRICANE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 25N. EXPECT INGRID TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF
UNTIL MONDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND N OF 15N. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO
GUATEMALA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 14N-18N E OF 62W. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA N OF THE EQUATOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N72W PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PUERTO
RICO... HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA...MOSTLY OVER HAITI...AND MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE N TO HISPANIOLA WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
BAHAMAS W OF 70W. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 53W-60W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF
HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 25N36W 1005 MB MOVING NW AT 12 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 33W-38W. EXPECT THE LOW NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE
NW AND WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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