[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID AT 16/0300 UTC IS NEAR 23.1N
96.5W OR 95 NM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND IS MOVING W-NW AT 5
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS NEAR 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 94W-97W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

AS OF 16/0300 UTC THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO ARE BEING ANALYZED AS
A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N41W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS
BEEN MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT AND IS GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING AND DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS NE OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 38W-42W...COINCIDING WITH AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W FROM
19N-10N...MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS BEING
ENGULFED BY VERY DRY SAHARAN AIR WHICH IS LIMITING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250
NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-15N AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS
FROM 14N-18N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 16N16W
TO 14N23W TO 10N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N32W TO 08N43W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N E OF
18W...FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 19W-28W AS WELL AS FROM 07N-11N
BETWEEN 36W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE W
OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 46W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE INGRID. MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA AND ANOTHER ONE
SW OF GUATEMALA ALSO SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF
JUST E OF THE UPPER-RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER GULF W OF
88W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 86W AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FROM 25N-29N E OF 88W. HURRICANE INGRID
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TRAILING CONVECTION
FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LINGER OVER THE W-SW GULF FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COINCIDES WITH THIS
REGION OF HIGH MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THUS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W...INCLUDING CUBA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 12N BETWEEN
78W-83W. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA OF THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY OVER THIS REGION. A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE MONA PASSAGE. ANOTHER
ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE THIS MORNING IS IN THE SE BASIN COINCIDING
WITH A REGION OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS SCENARIO IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 13N E OF
64W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A DRY ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WITH MOISTER AIR SURROUNDING THE COASTLINES.
A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND THUS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY NEAR THE COASTLINE
AND ADJACENT WATERS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED
IN THE RESPECTIVE SECTIONS ABOVE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A
REGION OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 28N-30N W
OF 72W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS TROUGH AND A WEAK RIDGE
FORMING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR
CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 74W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FORMER LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 25N64W TO
23N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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