[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
INTENSIFIED THUS BECOMING THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON
NAMED INGRID. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS NEAR 19.4N
95.3W AT 13/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MOVING W AT 2 KT. ITS ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. A
BIG CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM 18N-27N W OF
90W AS WELL AS IN THE SE BASIN S OF 26N E OF 90W. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

FORMER HURRICANE HUMBERTO WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AT
13/1200 UTC. THE TROPICAL STORM CENTER IS NEAR 24.7N 31.3W AT
13/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 665 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
W-NW AT 9 KT. ITS ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 25W-30W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE IS NEAR 39.1N 66.5W AT 13/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 211 NM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MOVING NNE AT 20
KT. ITS ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS N OF 39N BETWEEN 61W-
67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 35N-39N
BETWEEN 63W-66W AS WELL AS FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS COME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EXTENDING AN
AXIS FROM 15N17W TO 07N15W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE THE WAVE IS MOSTLY WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WHILE THE METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY DEPICT THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DUST AIRMASS COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N E OF 20W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N25W TO 11N36W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 11N37W TO 10N45W TO 11N50W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY
DISCUSSED...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N
BETWEEN 20W-30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-51W AND WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-
49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W
SUPPORTS THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM INGRID WHICH FORMED AT 13/1500
UTC. IN THE UPPER-LEVEL...AN ELONGATED LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER
NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
BASIN S OF 28N E OF 96W. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE REMAINDER CONVECTION IN THE
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM INGRID. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON/INGRID SEE THE
SECTION OF SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR
IN THE NE GULF SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. INGRID WILL
BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
INGRID IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO COVERS ALSO THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W. THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE-
LEVEL ELONGATED LOW THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE E PACIFIC HAS BEEN ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N W OF 81W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W BUT
ITS CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-75W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY A
WEAK RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 13N E OF 66W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SW TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RAINSHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITHIN THAT PERIOD. GENTLE WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WHICH IS
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE ATLC BASIN S OF 30N IS TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT IT SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N58W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 56W-59W. A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N56W. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SW
TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS LOW FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND IS
DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS COVER THE W ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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