[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS NEAR 19.2N 95.4W AT 13/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 43 NM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND IS STATIONARY. ITS
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 90W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF NE NEXICO FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 95W-98W. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS NEAR 25.0N 32.1W AT 13/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 708 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT.
ITS ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 25W-31W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ARE NEAR 42.0N 64.0W AT 13/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 278 NM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MOVING NNE AT 25 KT.
ITS ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 37N-45N BETWEEN 60W-
64W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA HAS BEEN
RELOCATED FURTHER INLAND. THE RELOCATED WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N12W TO 10N14W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE LOCATION IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY,SUNY TROPICAL
WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 9W-16W. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 14W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S.INGRID IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 26N101W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTERED IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 81W-90W. CONDIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INTENSIFY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS DUE TO A MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO SW
GUATEMALA. MORE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA N OF THE EQUATOR.
FINALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N
E OF 63W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N74W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERD MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA W OF 70W...MOSTLY OVER HAITI. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE IS OVER THE
NW ATLC... AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS IN THE E ATLC. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE TROPICS...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N57W AND IS EXPECTERD TO MOVE W AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N59W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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