[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 94.5W AT 13/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 100 NM E-NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 182 NM
E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 91W-97W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W
OF 82W TO INLAND OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF E MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND
25 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 30.2W AT 13/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 612 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N-NW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE NE OF
THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 250 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT 13/0900 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CENTERED NEAR 36.5N
67.5W AT 13/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 312 NM S-SE OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 517 NM S-SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MOVING N-NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 90 NM OF LINE FROM 34N65W TO 39N67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W TO 11N32W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONTINUE TO BE DISRUPTED BY HURRICANE
HUMBERTO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 13W-30W. A 1004 MB LOW IS E
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 17N55W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 51W-53W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N13N BETWEEN
40W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IN
THE S GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING RAIN
OVER MEXICO. SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 93W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF  N
OF 26N E OF 90W. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN COVERS THE S GULF S OF 25N. THIS IS CREATING A
VERY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE S GULF. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NW THEN MOVING INLAND
OVER MEXICO EARLY MON NEAR TAMPICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IN THE S
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N W OF 80W
TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-
19N BETWEEN 75W-79W INCLUDING JAMAICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING TRINIDAD.
GENTLE WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W BRINGING
MORE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IN THE E ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 33N73W ALONG 30N77W TO INLAND OVER THE
E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
28N58W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N62W TO
27N59W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N-30N BETWEEN 54W-58W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 25N47W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 43N-48W. WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS COVER THE W ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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