[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 94.2W AT 13/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 120 NM E-NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 NM
E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-
97W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
25N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF E MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND
25 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 29.7W AT 13/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 547 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N-NW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.1N 67.7W AT 13/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 390 NM S-SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT
600 NM S-SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING N-NE AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 33N-41W BETWEEN 64W-69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 7N27W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ CONTINUE TO BE DISRUPTED BY HURRICANE HUMBERTO.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A 1005 MB LOW APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR 17N55W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 10N48W
TO 18N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IN THE S
GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING RAIN OVER
MEXICO. SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF
N OF 24N W OF 92W AND IS CENTERED JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SE LOUISIANA. AN UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN COVERS THE S GULF S OF
25N. THIS IS CREATING A VERY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE S
GULF. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHILE
FOLLOWING A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OF TAMPICO BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IN THE S
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA N OF 10N W
OF 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N75W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 72W-
80W. GENTLE WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  TONIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S HAITI. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W BRINGING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IN THE E ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TO BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER LOW
IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N58W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W-57W. A
SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N45W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 43-
47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 40W-44W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED COVER THE W ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN WATERS
THIS WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net