[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 29.2W AT 12/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 517 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.4N 67.9W AT 12/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 200 NM NW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 7 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 65W-68W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 93.6W AT 12/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 152 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 6 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 91W-97W. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A
LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N18W TO 6N27W THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE
HUMBERTO NEAR 13N36W TO 8N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N46W TO
12N51W THEN RESUMES SW OF A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 13N58W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIONIS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D. TEN IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. AS OF
2100 UTC... A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM N
FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 28N97W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE CENTERED IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 81W-91W. CONDIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-
21N BETWEEN 82W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM NICARAGUA
TO BELIZE. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 74W-84W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEA W OF
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 13N73W.
THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA W OF
71W...MOSTLY OVER HAITI. MORE CONVECTION IS OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE MOVING W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 24N AND W OF 77W. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS OVER
THE W ATLC... AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE E ATLC. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE TROPICS...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
17N54W AND IS EXPECTERD TO MOVE W AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N78W ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N44W. AGAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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