[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 98.8W AT
07/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 56 NM W-SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING SW AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI AND
TAMAULIPAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N34W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N35W TO 10N35W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 5
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW/WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. LOW IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SATELLITE
WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 16N78W TO
8N78W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W-SW 10-15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 18N76W TO 13N82W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 10 KT FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN
84W-87W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N20W 15N30W THROUGH THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N35W TO 8N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-17N
E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO AND
EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE S GULF ALONG 20N BETWEEN MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. T.D. EIGHT IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS IN THE W ATLC AND INLAND OVER SE CONUS.
A SQUALL LINE GENERATED OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 07/0000 UTC
HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY W INTO THE NE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N E OF 87W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA S OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-95W. T. D. EIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE IT
IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NARROWS AS
IT EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO HONDURAS. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED S OF
HAITI NEAR 16N74W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N
BETWEEN 70W-82W AND IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-76W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. THE
REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE IS N OF HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 63W-70W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. FRESH SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN LATER TODAY.
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
ISLAND TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF HAITI NEAR
16N74W AND THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE LOCATED N OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THEN
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 65W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 07/0300 UTC THROUGH A
1016 MB LOW NEAR 32N74W ALONG 30N80W THEN OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO OVER THE SE CONUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 225 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 50W.
BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG 26N67W TO 30N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 525 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH AND A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVING SLOWLY
NW. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE TROUGH. THE LOW IS TO
DISSIPATE EARLY TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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