[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT 07/0900 UTC AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 99.3W AT
07/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 90 NM W-SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING W-SW AT
6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS WAS THE
LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N W OF
95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N34W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N35W TO 10N35W. WAVE HAS BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. LOW/WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. LOW IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SATELLITE
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N30W TO 18N32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N79W TO
9N80W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N77W TO 14N84W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W S OF 18N TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING 10-15 KT FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS/GUATEMALA W OF 85W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N21W THROUGH THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N35W TO 9N43W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-16N
E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO AND
EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE S GULF ALONG 19N BETWEEN MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMNANTS OF T.D. EIGHT ARE BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 07/0900 UTC CLIPS THE
FAR NE GULF IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-30N E OF
94W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE ABOVE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 21N-25N E OF 95W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT
BEFORE IT IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NARROWS AS
IT EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N75W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 78W-87W AND IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN
73W-78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION. THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES TO PULL N
AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-70W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
LEEWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. FRESH
SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SUN. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN
LATER THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED SW OF HAITI AND THE REMNANT LOW OF
GABRIELLE/SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUN WHEN THE
LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 63W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 07/0900 UTC THROUGH
32N73W ALONG 29N80W THEN OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
OVER THE SE CONUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF A LINE FROM MIAMI FLORIDA ALONG 27N75W TO 32N70W. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 50W.
BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N69W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG 26N68W TO 30N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-32N BETWEEN 55W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH AND A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMNANT
LOW OF GABRIELLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW TO N. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
WATERS THROUGH MON AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SETS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE MON THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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