[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 98.2W AT
06/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING
WSW AT 5 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-100W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N34W TO A 1010 MB
LOW AT 14N35W TO 7N35W MOVING W AT 5 KT.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N77W TO
8N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT. PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 10N85W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. PRESENTLY SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
ESPECIALLY OVER E HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 12N20W TO 16N29W TO 14N35W TO 8N41W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N41W TO 8N50W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D. EIGHT IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING INLAND. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W
GULF FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 30N80W TO 28N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 29N-31N E OF 98W.
MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MOST OF
FLORIDA E OF 84W AND N OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W GULF. THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SHIFT FROM N FLORIDA TO S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT T.D. EIGHT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND...AND  A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IS N OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-
20N BETWEEN 68W-73W TO INCLUDE MOST OF HISPANIOLA. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN 79W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE TO MOVE SLOWLY N... WHILE
THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION
OVER HISPANIOLA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA
NEAR JACKSONVILLE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 76W-80W DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS NE FROM THE
1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AT 20N69W TO 24N68W TO 30N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A 1024 HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W. ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH IS NEAR THE AZORES AT 41N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N54W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 28N-35N BETWEEN 47W-59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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