[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT
06/0300 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 68.5W OR ABOUT 26 NM N-NW
OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING N-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS NFDHSFAT1/
FZNT01 KWBC. THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N68W 18N65W TO 21N65W INCLUDING
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED
AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N97W THROUGH A WEAK 1012
MB LOW NEAR 23N97W TO 20N95W. HOWEVER...DATA FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED IT
DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N-26N W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N31W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N32W TO 9N33W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
W NEAR 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE WINDS WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N56W TO
10N53W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CUT-OFF AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 15N-18N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N82W TO 10N82W.
WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 16N-19N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N21W 15N27W THROUGH THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N32W TO 9N39W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N42W TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDS
AN AXIS ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 23N BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 24N-28N FROM 92W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE N GULF
COAST DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS INLAND ACROSS THE
SE CONUS. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND
THE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. THE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W ANCHORED NEAR 18N63W. THIS IS
INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N79W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-79W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF
THE S COAST OF CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S PANAMA
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE S OF 10N W OF 79W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N INTO THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE WILL DISSIPATE
FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BASIN E
OF 70W FRI THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN SOME MON. W CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SW HAITI WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.
THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IS OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING MOVING N AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS
ON SUN. THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 66W
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N W OF 80W
TO INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE
AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-63W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 30N60W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 28N54W TO 33N57W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO
21N67W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 16N-28N BETWEEN 52W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY LIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH SAT THEN NE
INTO MON WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT OVER  THE
CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO TO THE W ATLC
TONIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AND SHIFTS E SAT
AND SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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