[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N32W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N33W TO 9N33W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
W NEAR 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N59W TO
10N55W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W-SW 15-20 KT FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CUT-OFF AREA OF MODERATE TO
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 56W-60W...FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 53W-55W...AND
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 58-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO 10N83W.
WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N75W TO 16N83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N20W 14N26W THROUGH THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N33W TO 10N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N51W TO 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 35W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN
GUINEA AND SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N97W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N97W...TO 20N96W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. IT IS ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS
OF WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF LINE FROM 26N95W TO 19N91W
TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS
TODAY.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDS
AN AXIS ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 22N BETWEEN MEXICO AND CUBA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 89W-95W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 22N-
28N E OF 89W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
W OF 83W. THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W
ANCHORED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO OVER
CUBA NEAR 21N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W-83W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-78W AND S OF 10N W OF 78W. A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS
OF GABRIELLE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 62W-69W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 70W TODAY THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN SOME
MON. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA ON TODAY.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E TIP OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER SW
HAITI. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IS JUST OFFSHORE NEAR
19.5N69W GENERATING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HERE REMAINS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 65W
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N W OF 80W
TO THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W-
80W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-
63W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 30N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH 21N56W TO BEYOND 32N49W. A
1010 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GABRIELLE...IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19.5N69W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE
ALONG 24N66W TO 29N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 62W-
65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023
MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT THEN NE INTO MON
WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AND SHIFTS E SAT
AND SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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