[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE AT 05/2100 UTC IS
NEAR 18.2N 68.6W.  THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF
PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. GABRIELLE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2...AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PRESENTLY
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 65W-72W.

A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N96W TO THE LOW
CENTER TO 17N93W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO A 1011 MB
LOW AT 13N31W TO 8N32W MOVING W AT 10 KT. DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N55W TO 14N53W TO
10N50W MOVING W AT 15 KT. PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 10N81W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 13N31W TO 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO
7N44W TO 8N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 18W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. PRESENTLY
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF STATES
E OF E TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 29N-
31N E OF 98W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W GULF. THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE W GULF SYSTEM
TO BE THE DOMINATE CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

T.D.GABRIELLE IS ON THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF GABRIELLE FROM 24N64W TO
20N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WITH SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FRO N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-
13N BETWEEN 70W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR PUERTO RICO.

HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE NHC ADVISORIES AND LOCAL AND
NATIONAL ADVISORIES FOR WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH RESPECT TO T.D. GABRIELLE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF GABRIELLE FROM 24N64W TO 20N68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS TROUGH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE OR ITS REMNANTS AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A 1024 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N47W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N60W PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 53W-62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net