[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031952 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

RETRANSMITTED

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 11N TO 19N
MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 15N62W...ABOUT 30 NM TO THE WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND 30 NM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF DOMINICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W...AND
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 0.76 IN BARBADOS...
0.81 IN CURACAO...0.61 IN GUADELOUPE...0.25 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...0.13 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.08 IN TRINIDAD. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N40W 16N39W 10N37W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N40W
20N41W 11N39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N56W 15N55W 10N54W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN
49W AND 58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N15W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N16W...
TO 9N29W AND 7N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N37W TO 9N46W AND
9N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N17W 13N20W 11N23W 8N24W
5N25W 5N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THIS
AREA SLOWLY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE STREAMS FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 25N93W CYCLONIC CENTER.
A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 25N103W IN MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO ITS PRESENT
POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N82W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TO 29N86W...CURVING TO THE 25N93W CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION OF A COMPARATIVELY STRONGER INTENSITY IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON
TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BEYOND GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 2.26 IN MERIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE AND HAZE ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KMDJ. VISIBILITIES OF ONE
MILE OR LESS AND HAZE ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION
KEMK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING
REPORTED AT BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
COVER THE REST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND BAY CITY  IN TEXAS.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING ARE AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS AT MOBILE
ALABAMA...AND IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM MARY ESTHER TO PANAMA CITY AND MARIANNA. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING IS IN TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM SARASOTA TO PUNTA GORDA...AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH
32N23W 30N37W...TO A 25N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N60W...TO 23N67W...CURVING
TO 22N73W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A 17N76W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N79W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 23N40W 16N39W 10N37W TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 22N77W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N83W 13N77W 12N75W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE
MONA PASSAGE AND 76W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.23 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 17N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH...
AND THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N93W CYCLONIC
CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO
20N BETWEEN 85W AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
16N TO THE WEST OF 81W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-TO-
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N83W 13N77W 12N75W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A 17N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND 76W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A RIDGE FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO AREA AT
THE END OF THE 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT
CURRENT TROUGH THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE
AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N TO 18N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 30N49W TO 28N61W...TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND WESTERN
CUBA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 56W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
23N...EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
FROM 17.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 13N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 49W
AND 52W. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST INDICATES WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 17N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net